The number of Kovid patients has started increasing once again in Kerala. In view of this, epidemiologists and health experts have warned that this could be the beginning of the third wave of the corona epidemic. However, the state authorities have not officially announced the third wave.
In the fourth week of June, 12 to 14 thousand Kovid patients were coming to Kerala every day. In comparison, 20 to 22 thousand patients were registered daily in the last week of July. The testing positivity rate is above 12% in the last six days. Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary, Union Health Ministry also said on Tuesday that there are 44 such districts in the country which have more than 10% positivity rate. These districts are in Kerala, Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland.
Signs of the start of the third wave
Epidemiologist and Public Health Expert Dr Raman Kutty says, ‘The increase in the number of patients can be a sign that this may be the beginning of the third wave, so there is a need to be careful now. The number of such people in the state is still very high, who are more likely to be infected with corona. Therefore, the government needs to formulate a far-reaching strategy to deal with the new Kovid wave.
At present, Kerala accounts for 51% of the total corona cases in the country. The seven-day average for the state is 0.60% while it is 0.13% for the entire country.
‘Many waves yet to come in Kerala’
Dr A Sukumaran says, ‘It is a common theory that any viral infection comes in multiple waves when the population is more vulnerable to diseases. There are many waves yet to come before the corona cases in Kerala come down. Sukumaran is a former epidemiologist from Kerala. He is retired but has returned to work in the control room in Wayanad.
He says that there were also four waves of Spanish flu, but in the case of Corona it could be more because the viral changes are still happening.
‘Corona in Kerala is different from others’
Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, Vice Chairman, Research Cell, IMA, says, “From the very beginning, the corona in Kerala has spread differently from other parts of the country. Disease waves do not spread evenly in large countries as compared to smaller countries. These depend on many factors like population density, geography, socio-economic conditions, education.
Vaccinations are expected
He hopes that we may not be able to eliminate the virus completely when the vaccination increases, but through this we can reduce the damage in the future. Only 17% of the population in Kerala has been fully vaccinated. At present, more than 50% of the population is an easy victim of Corona.
Health Minister Veena George has admitted that the state has not yet recovered from the second wave of corona but it will have to prepare to deal with the third wave from now on. He said, ‘In the third wave, more patients will come to the hospitals. Realizing this, the government is increasing the facilities of the hospitals. More oxygen units are being installed in the hospitals.
Kerala Covid news: Threat of third wave of corona in Kerala… Expert issued alert