September 23, 2021

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Two-thirds of the people are sero-positive yet did not get herd immunity, this talk of the expert increasing the tension on the third wave

 

Highlights

  • Experts had predicted the beginning of the third wave on July 4
  • Now Dr. Vipin Srivastava made a big claim on the basis of his model
  • Third wave is taking a dangerous turn, it is a matter of tension: Srivastava
  • The number of new patients coming daily is more than the people recovering

New Delhi
The new claim of an expert who predicted the third wave of Kovid-19 in July itself is raising concerns. According to Dr. Vipin Srivastava, former Pro-VC of Hyderabad University and eminent scientist, a worrying trend is being seen in the pattern of Kovid across the country. The COVID-19 curve created by Dr Srivastava on the basis of daily deaths (DDL) has not only continued after July 4, but has also worsened in the last two weeks. According to Dr. Srivastava, this should not have happened.

‘The third wave taking a dangerous turn’
Dr Srivastava’s curve shows that between 24 July and 7 August, 15 days to 10 days were positive. This means that the third wave is taking a dangerous turn. Dr Vipin has also denied herd immunity in the country. “The ‘wild’ fluctuations seen in DDL after July 4 are worrying,” he said. He said that “the current fluctuations in DDL are interesting because they are much bigger than the previous ones and do not stop even after more than a month has passed.

Why is this happening?
According to Dr Vipin, the uncertainty of official figures could be one of the reasons. When the first wave was in progress, the death toll was improved several times. Uncertainties related to the death toll in the second wave increased. During the second wave, large fluctuations can be clearly seen in the graph of daily Kovid deaths.

Good news was given on Corona last week

‘Covid has spread to a great extent’
The scientist said that when the number of new cases in 24 hours was in lakhs, then those recovering also used to be in lakhs. When new cases started coming in thousands, the recovery also got limited. This ratio is called patient load (number of new patients per recovered patient). It is usually around 1. When the number of deaths increased in the middle of the second wave, the patient load had reached 2.2.

According to Dr. Vipin, “Our results indicate that the severity of Kovid-19 has become so high that the DDL derived from the data at the national level is staying positive daily. This means that the number of new positive cases daily is recovering during the same period. This is more than the number of patients who have died. However, the number of deaths is staying around 500 daily.

Covid-Wave-Prediction

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