third wave of corona But the discussion is hot again. A government report has warned about this. It has been told that any time between September and October, the third wave of corona can knock in the country. The matter does not end here only. In a separate research, scientists have also told when the third wave will reach its peak.
The scientist involved in the forecasting team based on the mathematical calculation (formula model) of the epidemic has made a big claim on Monday. He says that the third wave of Corona will peak in November. This will happen only if there are other forms other than the delta variant of the corona virus. At the same time they are fully active by the end of September. He says that like the second wave of Corona, cases will not accelerate in the third wave and it is possible that it will lead to a situation similar to the first wave.
The third wave may not even come
Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur scientist Manindra Agarwal said that if a new variant of the virus does not come, then the third wave may not come. Agarwal is part of a three-member expert team that has been given the responsibility of forecasting the number of cases.
Aggarwal said, ‘Based on the new data, we can say that the country may see the peak of the third wave of the corona epidemic in November. provided more infectious variants of the virus emerge. In that case we can see up to 1.5 lakh new cases daily and it will peak in November. However, its magnitude will not be like that of the second wave, but will be similar to that of the first wave.
Delta variant has wreaked havoc
He said that this forecast is based on estimates. The second wave came in the country due to the delta variant of the virus. Between March and May, it had assumed a formidable form. Then millions of people were infected. At the same time, thousands of people died. On May 7, the highest number of 4,14,188 new cases of Kovid-19 were reported in the country. At present, cases are increasing in different parts of the world from the delta variant of the virus.
“If a more infectious variant of the virus (compared to the current form of the virus present in the country) does not come,” Agarwal said, citing the new data, then there may not be a third wave in the country.
He said the figures would be made public soon. Last month, the Formula Model team predicted that the third wave of the coronavirus could begin in August and peak in October. It was estimated in the model that one and a half to two lakh new cases could come daily. However, August did not see a rise in cases.
According to researchers from the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, between August 14 and 16, the ‘reproductive value’ or R-value (average of infecting one person to another) of the corona virus epidemic was 0.89. To prevent the spread of infection, it is necessary that it remains below one.
Earlier, the National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM) warned of a third wave. In his report, he feared a third wave of corona would come anytime from September to October. NIDM comes under the Ministry of Home Affairs. The report emphasizes on special preparation for children. The panel has submitted the report to the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO). The report cited a Reuters opinion survey. In the survey, 40 experts have indicated the arrival of a third wave of corona in India between July 15 and October 31, 2021. Children are at greatest risk of this.