There are now Syrian refugees in at least 25 countries, from Turkey to Brazil. There are over a million in at least 6 countries. Turkey alone is handling 3.5 million. That is why the fear of civil war in Myanmar is growing, as is the fear in neighboring countries.
Can civil war break out in Myanmar?
5 countries including Bangladesh have borders with Myanmar. In all such countries, Myanmar now has some or other refugees. It is not easy to estimate how many new refugees will be added to the old ones when the civil war starts. Because the situation in Myanmar may be worse than in Syria. Many guerrilla groups here already have huge weapons in their hands. There is also the historical ethnic rivalry as the logistics of war. Again, the country’s armed forces also have a notoriety for killings.
The United Nations has warned of a civil war
The UN special envoy to Myanmar has already warned the world of civil war in the country. At his request, the Security Council moved quickly. Civil war is inevitable if delayed. UN envoy Christine Shaner Bergner’s fears are not unfounded. About 600 protesters have already been killed, 40-50 of them teenagers. This movement, due to its existence, can gradually move from its current non-violent character to armed resistance. The military also benefits. If he is like that, it is easy for them to shoot indiscriminately. Christine also warned the Security Council at the UN Security Council that the impending war would be “a multi-dimensional catastrophe in Central Asia.” There are already signs of that catastrophe on the Mizoram and Chiang Rai borders in Thailand.
The old armed movement is being revived
The way Myanmar’s armed forces, known as ‘Tatmado’, are fighting the coup, there is no way for millions of people to cross the border. Initially, the activities of the armed forces were limited to road raids, but now the air force is also being used to support them. Karen, Kachin and other areas have already broken the old status quo of local autonomy with Tatmadaur. Twenty years after the coup, Tatmadau bombed the Thai-adjacent Karen area again.
The Kachin Army, the Tang Liberation Army and the Arakan Army have formed an alliance called the Brotherhood Alliance and have already stated their opposition to the military coup. The Shane State Restoration Council of Shane is also against Cure.
Minority guerrillas are eager to take advantage of the situation
Almost all non-Bama minorities in Myanmar have armed groups. There will be about 20 such organizations. Its at least four (Wa Army, Karen Union, Arakan Army and Kachin Army) control about one-third of the country.
People in some of these areas are not in favor of the queue. Protests are low in the Wader area. Because, Wa Army influenced People’s Republic of China. It is the largest guerrilla group in Myanmar. Activists are active everywhere else. Local guerrillas are less likely to be indifferent to the military’s crackdown on democrats. Again, it is impossible to cooperate with Tatmadau. The guerrillas will have to take the risk of losing the support of the local community. Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), will take it as a betrayal.
Myanmar’s military junta has killed more than 600 protesters
Military junta kills more than 600 protesters in Myanmar
Karen and Kachin have already taken over some of the Army’s outposts in the wake of anti-coup public opinion. It is understood that ethnic minorities are eager to take advantage of the NLD and Tatmadaur conflict. Both the NLD and the Tatmado are influenced by the Bama race. That is why small armed groups of other nationalities want to take the current situation as a historic opportunity to assert their demands. They have bargaining power with both NLD and Tatmado.
Since young people in general are against the coup, it is morally easier for guerrilla groups to take a stand against the armed forces. Such a situation could be like fueling a civil war. However, many of these guerrilla groups could go in their favor if Tatmadau made a big concession on the question of autonomy. In that case, too, the country’s geographical integrity and Tatmadaur’s authority will no longer be as it is now.
If the Arakan Army, like Karen and Kachin, escalates operations against Tatmadaur, Myanmar’s neighbors may have to be prepared to accept more refugees. Outside the Wa Army, all three are Myanmar’s strongest guerrilla groups. The Arkan Army was dropped from the list of “terrorist” organizations after the Tatmadou coup as a compromise initiative. But the Arakan Army’s anti-coup stance suggests it is difficult for guerrilla groups to compromise with Tatmadaur at the moment. They cannot ignore the non-violent mass movement.
The armed tendency of the youth of Bama is increasing
The most important question that has arisen from the situation in Myanmar at the moment is, how long will the protesters remain non-violent? Some young people in Bama think that non-violent protests are only a waste of energy. It is difficult to corner Tatmadau in this way. However, it is not possible for them to be armed without ‘foreign aid’. For now, some armed activity has begun with home-made guns and locally made bombs, which clearly indicates where the future may go. The more interest there is in the fight against violence, the more anarchy is bound to spread across the country. The armed forces then have to deal with the armed activities of the minority nations as well as the indigenous Bamars.